Trade outlook conversations used to be about whether a UK company should sell something abroad at all. A decade ago it was enough to acknowledge that growth in the domestic economy was slow and that looking overseas offered a bigger customer base. Today what’s striking is how often I’ve heard the same word from different business leaders in different industries: uncertainty. That reflects real experience not abstraction. For so many firms uncertainty now feels like the baseline condition of international commerce and not the temporary lull before the next boom.
I remember sitting in a conference room with the head of a midsize engineering firm late last year. He wasn’t railing against global markets outright or lamenting free trade as a theory. He was, even then, quietly panicked by the unpredictability of tariffs and trade policy in the United States and Europe. That unease isn’t unique to one company. Across surveys and reports from Deloitte and the British Chambers of Commerce strategic planners keep echoing the same concern that global trade friction has hardened into a long‑term reality. More than eighty percent of UK business leaders now expect disruption every planning cycle for the next couple of years at least, and many see tariff risk creeping into cost models and pricing decisions that were once stable assumptions .
This matters. Costs become harder to price when you do not know how much duty your product will attract in your most important markets. When a Midlands manufacturer talks about the headaches of navigating the rules of origin between the UK and other countries you feel the tension between being competitive and simply staying solvent. Eight in ten manufacturers report tariffs or duties affecting their business, half cite customs delays as significant, and that messes with schedules, cash flow, and client relationships in ways that can be hard to quantify at the end of a quarter .
If we look beyond tariffs the story becomes even more complicated. The past year has seen global supply chains retract from some of their most intense nodes of risk. A surprising number of British companies that once relied heavily on China for components or as an assembly base are actively moving operations either closer to home or to adjacent markets in Southeast Asia. These moves are not fashionable talking points. They are real strategic choices driven by a mix of threats and opportunity costs. Some firms have already relocated elements of their supply chain, others are planning it, and many more are actively sizing up alternatives. The calculus they’re using is not just about costs but about resilience in a world where geopolitical blips can suddenly belabor shipping routes or regulatory environments .
And yet, even in that reshuffling there’s a broader ambition at play. Nearly half of UK firms surveyed expect a significant portion of their revenue to come from overseas markets in the next year. That is a remarkable shift from modest export ambitions to a point where global markets are central to growth strategies, not peripheral to them. It is one of those facts that makes you pause not because it is comforting but because it carries its own set of challenges. We are witnessing something like a quiet inversion of the usual trade argument: it is no longer about whether to trade abroad but how to do it in a world where the rules are in flux and the consequences of getting it wrong are costly .
I have seen budgets padded with buffers for uncertain tariffs and contingency plans for rerouting logistics. And yes, that makes firms leaner in some respects but also warier. One simple truth stands out in conversations with exporters and service firms alike: growing internationally is essential, yet global trade has become a terrain where strategy must constantly adjust to shifting winds.
For some industries the picture is particularly stark. Firms in manufacturing, where physical supply chains and freight costs come into play, are recalibrating their outlooks week by week. Costs for raw materials are unpredictable, customs processes remain inconsistent across borders, and rules of origin can be an administrative quagmire. A toy maker in the North of England might find a promising market in Canada only to discover that new tariff categories or compliance requirements make pricing far less competitive than last year. Meanwhile a services firm in London sees stable demand from the United States and Asia but has to navigate data transfer rules and regulatory frameworks that seem to change with every new trade negotiation. It is a limbo of opportunity and friction that is, if anything, more challenging than the old export constraints of the past.
Trade policy itself is part of the uncertainty equation. There are hopeful signs that the government’s network of FTAs could bring long‑term benefits for some sectors, and many business leaders rate these agreements positively. But in real time the protective instincts of major trading partners linger. Some UK companies tell me they are optimistic about deeper cooperation with the EU and the United States, while others are more skeptical. It is clear businesses do not want isolation from these markets, but they also want clarity and consistency in how trade is regulated. And they want it now not two years down the line as negotiating cycles stretch on without resolution in sight .
Even as they cope with tariffs and supply chains, firms are also battling emerging risks that are not strictly economic. Cyber threats and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence are reshaping risk registers across UK boards. Companies now invest time and attention in digital resilience in a way that would have seemed almost exotic a decade ago. That rapidly evolving risk landscape plays into how international strategy is crafted too. Protecting data flows across borders and ensuring digital systems are robust against attack matters just as much as navigating a customs declaration in Rotterdam or Singapore .
If there is an emotional current beneath all these trends it is a mix of unease and stubborn optimism. Unease because the world no longer feels orderly in the way it once did for trade and commerce. Optimism because UK firms continue to push outward, finding demand in new regions and adapting to unfamiliar terrain. They do not always broadcast these adjustments, but they are happening in boardrooms from Leeds to Edinburgh and beyond.
The global market trends unfolding now will not simply be a backdrop for UK companies in the coming years. They will shape decisions, finances, and futures in profound ways. What those trends demand is not just adaptation but readiness to embrace an uncertain world with strategic clarity and a willingness to evolve.
